Election 08 in America continues to generate a level of enthusiasm and debate that can only be dreamed about in Ireland with our own election only months away.
The reasons are many. For one, this will be the first US Presidential Election since 1928 in which an outgoing President or his vice-President has not sought re-election to the office. George W Bush has served his two terms in office and his vice-President Dick Cheney has long stated his intention not to seek the Republican nomination for 08. This will enhance the impression of 08 being the year for change and hope, a theme being exploited by many of the candidates, with Democrat candidate Barack Obama canvassing as the candidate ‘for hope’ and fellow Democrat John Edwards election slogan being ‘Tomorow begins today’.
Contrast this with our own situation in Ireland when the election result in the summer will herald, almost en bloc, the return of many of the same faces to the seats they vacated only a few weeks previously.
In the age of celebrity the US Presidential race has a superstar cast, the Democrat race for nomination being contested by previous First Lady Hillary Clinton and wife of arguably the celebrity politician, Bill Clinton. Barack Obama has been likened to John F Kennedy since his meteoric rise to national prominence following a star speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention. On the Republican side Time Man of the Year 2001 Rudolph Giuliani remains the most likely Republican candidate for the White House in 2008.
Bertie Ahern’s star quality has certainly dipped over the course of his tenure, and surely for the main reason that he has been in the national spotlight for so long that whatever lustre or lure he has as a politician has dipped. And where do we look for a politician with something interesting to say, delivered with the passion of beliefs that don’t upset the political correctness brigade. Brian Cowen? Pat Rabbitte? Enda Kenny? A lot of people would struggle to identify photographs of them, not to mind struggling through ten minutes listening to the latest version of bland centrist politics.
And so look to America, so often castigated and maligned in recent years as a whole, for it’s role in Iraq, for genuine candidates of substance and a genuinely engaging political process and election campaign.
It is a campaign of firsts. Hillary Clinton seeks the first nomination from any party to run as a female candidate for President, if successful and elected she would be the first woman President of the USA. Barack Obama, currently the only African-American Senator, bids to become the first African-American President of America. Bill Richardson, Democrat, bids to become the first Hispanic President. John McCain, Republican, bids to become, at 70, the oldest President ever to be inaugurated. Mitt Romney, Republican, would be the first ever Mormon President, if elected.
It seems likely that this election could set the tone for how America is viewed for much of the next century. But if the list of candidates are anything to go by, it seems that the latest campaign will be one that if fresh and epitomising a change, something a stale political landscape in Ireland can only dream long into the night about.
And so, what of the candidates?
A Fox News poll of Republican voters places Rudolph Giuliani as their preferred choice at 30%, followed by John McCain on 23% and Mitt Romney on 8%, followed by a list of candidates ranging on the 1% to 3% scale.
Rudolph Giuliani came to prominence on a worldwide scale as the Mayor of New York during the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Awarded an honorary knighthood by Queen Elizabeth for his leadership skills during the crisis, Giuliani was dubbed ‘America’s Mayor’ for the way he personified the fighting spirit of New Yorker’s and America as a whole in the days, weeks and months after the attacks.
Born into a household of Italian immigrants, Giuliani was previously US Attorney for New York as a time when many of the cities crime leaders, including Anthony ‘Fat Tony’ Salerno of the Genovese crime family. Elected the first Republican Mayor of New York since 1969, Giuliani has become a self-made millionaire since leaving the office, through his corporate speaking engagements through his company Giuliani Partners.
Giuliani certainly has a colourful private life, having been married three times. Through his own explanation his first marriage was annulled after 14 years when he and his wife found they were second cousins. His second wife, American TV personality Donna Hanover, divorced him after he began an alleged affair with one his staff. A Roman Catholic, strangely for a Republican he is pro-choice on the issue of Abortion and is in favour of civil unions for gay couples.
John McCain has long been a firm supporter of sending more troops to Iraq and for this reason has been coming under a lot of media attention as his candidacy gets underway. Aged 70, McCain believes that ‘I am older than dirt and have more scars than Frankenstein’. One of these scars, on the side of his face, is the sign of his surviving a skin cancer scare. During his candidacy for President in 2000 he released 1,500 personal medical files to convince the voters he was fit for office.
McCain’s history is just as colourful as that of any of the other candidates, having surivived five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam and narrowly escaping death when the jet he was piloting was hit shortly before take-off from a US carrier.
Mitt Romney might the least well known of all the front-line candidates, but he certainly carries a CV of some weight. Governor of Massachusetts he rose to prominence during the infamous 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. Romney was drafted in when the games ran up a $379m debt, but under his stewardship the games turned over a $100m profit, with Romney himself contributing $1m and donating his fee, of around $750,000 to charity.
Romney has been criticised for appearing to support abortion early in his career, but has since hardened his stance, becoming anti-abortion to appeal to core Republican voters, as he also stands against same sex marriages. 67% of Republican voters believe that his Mormon background will not be a factor in the race for the Republican nomination. Mormons believe that government is divinely inspired, that the Garden of Eden is in Missouri and this is where Christ will come again.
Hillary Clinton enters the race at a time when more women hold elected office than at any time in US History, buoyed by Census results that showed nine million more women than men voted in the 2000 election. A recent Washington Post Poll shows Clinton’s support among women voters rose from 48% to 59% over the past year. Various polls show her on 33%, well ahead of Obama in the race for the Democrat nomination.
Famed for her strength and poise in the wake of the Lewinsky affair, Clinton became Senator for New York in 2001 when achieving 55% of the vote. Her speech for the candidacy began with the line ‘I’m in. And I’m in to win’. She seems by far the most likely Democrat candidate and the first female candidate to win the nomination from any party.
Various polls place Barack Obama on 12-14% as the preferred option of Democrat voters. 44% of voters in December Fox News Poll declared that Obama does not have enough experience, having only served two years in the Senate, but 74% believed that being African-American doesn’t matter when it comes to claiming the Democrat nomination.
Rather than deflect from his lack of experience Obama has campaigned on it. Obama believes that while he may have only spent two years in Washington it has been enough time for him to see what changes need to be made there, an old regime that he has never been a part of. When John Kerry won the Democrat nomination in 2000 Repulican’s had over twenty years papers from Kerry’s time in Senate to pick holes in, Obama doesn’t seem to have had the requisite time to collect any such skeletons in the closet.
Obama announced his candidacy in Illinois, where he had 8 years state legislature and 2 years senate experience, exactly the same timed served as Abraham Lincoln, who, from the same spot, had campaigned on uniting a divided nation after calling for an end to slavery.
Bill Richardson, 14 years a senator for New Mexico, Chairman of the 2004 Democratic convention, Governor of New Mexico, pervious Secretary fro Energy and US Ambassador to the UN, holds more political experience than Clinton, Obama and fellow candidate John Edwards added together.
He bids to become the first Hispanic President of America. Currently he holds a support of only between 1-3% with Democrat voters, despite apperaing to be the most qualified and experienced candidate in the race. It should be noted that in the last 30 years the only 2 Democrat candidates elected to the office of President had previously held the office of Governor, making Richardson the only current candidate to back up this statistic for the Democrats.
John Edwards, John Kerry’s running mate in the 2000 election, seems to be the only other Democrat capable of winning the nomination from his party. Dubbed the ‘YouTube’ candidate for his willingness to use the website to upload personal videos to his voters, Edwards retains the dubious title of being voted the ‘sexiest politican alive’ by People Magazine.
A self-made millionaire through his time as a personal injury lawyer, Edwards was prompted to move into politics following the death of his son. His major plan for election victory centers on his Health Care plan for America. It will cost $200billion a year and will be financed by higher taxes for Americans who earn more than $200,000 a year.
Edwards seems to be the most media literate of the politicans in the race, having his continued links to youtube, his own election blog and announcing his candidacy via the Daily Show with Jon Stewart.
Odds for the Primaries show Hillary Clinton trading at around evens, Obama at 3/1, Edwards at 5/1 and Richardson at 20/1. On the Republican side John McCain trades at evens with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani at 4/1.
Bookmakers rate Clinton a 2/1 shot to be the next President, McCain at 4/1, Edwards at 6/1 with Obama, with Giuliani at 10/1.
As for the Irish equivalent, look under ‘two bald men fighting over a comb’. It’s more interesting.
Posted by rgmccarthy